Family visits the Royal B.C. Museum as it reopens after pandemic closure, July 7, 2020. B.C.’s economic forecasts depend on how quickly business and customers have confidence to recover activities and spending. (B.C. government)

Family visits the Royal B.C. Museum as it reopens after pandemic closure, July 7, 2020. B.C.’s economic forecasts depend on how quickly business and customers have confidence to recover activities and spending. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s COVID-19 deficit could go deeper than $12.5 billion

Scenarios suggest $15 billion or ‘more optimistic’ $10 billion

The B.C. government’s deficit due to coronavirus economic effects has been estimated at $12.5 billion, but it could be 20 or even 30 per cent per cent worse than that, Moody’s Investor Services calculates.

Moody’s issued an update July 20 after B.C. Finance Minister Carole James released the province’s economic outlook, with a mid-range scenario for steep decline and recovery in 2021. This “base case” scenario of a deficit equal to 23 per cent of provincial revenue is “credit negative” but does not affect B.C.’s “AAA stable” credit rating, Moody’s said in a statement.

The $12.5 billion deficit is the middle of three projections, along with a “less optimistic” and “more optimistic” outlook, depending on how the COVID-19 pandemic persists and how well business and employment adapt and recover.

“In addition to its main economic and fiscal scenario, the province presented two alternative scenarios for faster or slower economic recovery,” Moody’s said. “Although the province does not present an estimate of the fiscal effects of its alternative scenarios, we forecast that they could result in a 20-30 per cent improvement or deterioration relative to the projected $12.5 billion 2020-21 deficit.”

Using the more cautious 20 per cent estimate, the “less optimistic” scenario yields a one-year deficit of $15 billion, while the “more optimistic” deficit would be $10 billion.

The massive deficits triggered by COVID-19 have hit credit ratings. In March, Moody’s downgraded Alberta’s credit rating for the second time in four months, from AA to AA Low on the petroleum-dependent province’s long-term debt.

And in June, Fitch Ratings downgraded Canada’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, with Canada’s expected deficit leading industrialized countries at $343 billion and its overall debt set to reach the $1 trillion mark.

RELATED: B.C.’s potential deficit $12.5B as spending soars

RELATED: $343 billion deficit seen in Canada fiscal ‘snapshot’

B.C. has changed its balanced budget legislation to permit three years of deficits, and Moody’s notes that the Bank of Canada commitment to keep interest rates a historic lows will ease the burden of beginning to repay the fast-accumulating debt.

B.C.’s “base case” economic scenario projects a 36.4 per cent drop in corporate profits compared to the February 2020 budget, a 15.9 per cent drop in retail sales and a 27.6 per cent decline in housing sales. All are key tax revenue sources for the province.

Under the “less optimistic” scenario, corporate profits drop 45.3 per cent, retail sales would be down 19.6 per cent and housing sales would be down 36.2 per cent. The “more optimistic” scenario is a 25.6 per cent drop in corporate profits, 9.6 per cent lower retail sales and 14 per cent lower housing sales.

“If local and global health conditions worsen significantly, households and businesses may remain cautious in their decisions for longer, and international trade may be further disrupted,” the finance ministry said in its July 14 economic and fiscal scenario document.


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Two vehicle incidents eastbound on the Trans Canada Highway have been reported in Langley. (Google photo)
TRAFFIC: Two separate vehicle crashes on Highway 1 in Langley, one person taken to hospital

University Drive is closed between 216th Street and Glover Road

James Hill Elementary has recorded a COVID-19 exposure. (Google photo)
James Hill Elementary recorded COVID exposure

Seven Langley schools are Fraser Health exposure list

Langley Township Civic Facility. (Langley Advance Times files)
Housing, RCMP, Fort roads all discussed at Langley Township budget meeting

A Monday meeting touched on priorities for this year and beyond

East Maple Ridge resident Maureen Jeknavorian capture a few pictures of life along the Fraser River, while walking through Derby Reach Regional Park recently, including a tug hauling a load down west along the river. (Special to Langley Advance Times)
SHARE: Shoreline view shows action on the water

Send us your photo showing how you view Langley, and it could be featured in a future edition

Table for sale took a bit more work than first thought. (Mariana Aramburu/Special to The Star)
Ryan’s Regards: Clearing the clutter

Most New Year’s resolutions are abandoned by this point in the year

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry prepares a daily update on the coronavirus pandemic, April 21, 2020. (B.C. Government)
B.C. adjusts COVID-19 vaccine rollout for delivery slowdown

Daily cases decline over weekend, 31 more deaths

Island Health chief medical officer Dr. Richard Stanwick receives a first dose of Pfizer vaccine, Dec. 22, 2020. (B.C. government)
B.C. turns to second doses of COVID-19 vaccine as supplies slow

Pfizer shipments down until February, to be made up in March

B.C.’s Ministry of Advanced Education and Skills Training announced funding to train community mental health workers at four B.C. post-secondary institutions. (Stock photo)
B.C. funding training of mental health workers at four post-secondary institutions

Provincial government says pandemic has intensified need for mental health supports

A health-care worker prepares a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at a UHN COVID-19 vaccine clinic in Toronto on Thursday, January 7, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
No Pfizer vaccines arriving in Canada next week; feds still expect 4M doses by end of March

More cases of U.K. variant, South African variant found in Canada

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Health-care workers wait in line at a UHN COVID-19 vaccine clinic in Toronto on Thursday, January 7, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Canadians who have had COVID-19 should still get the vaccine, experts say

Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were found to have a 95 per cent efficacy

An empty Peel and Sainte-Catherine street is shown in Montreal, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues in Canada and around the world. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes
Poll finds strong support for COVID-19 curfews despite doubts about effectiveness

The poll suggests 59 per cent remain somewhat or very afraid of contracting COVID-19

Most Read