As of this writing, there are six candidates in each of the NDP and BC Liberal leadership races. In each race, there are three front-runners and three others with remote chances.
Much has been written and said about the BC Liberals. Kevin Falcon, backed by both Langley MLAs, is one of three front-runners. Also in that group is Christy Clark, who will visit Langley on Thursday (see separate story). The third candidate with a good chance is Shuswap MLA George Abbott, whom may well come up the middle beteen Clark and Falcon. He has support from more MLAs than any other candidate.
Of the other three candidates, Mike de Jong and Moira Stilwell have been in cabinet, but their campaigns are less visible. The sixth candidate, Parksville mayor Ed Mayne, is a long shot.
In the NDP race, the three front-runners are Mike Farnworth, Adrian Dix and John Horgan.
Interestingly, all three backed outgoing leader Carole James when she was under attack from within her caucus. Thus if any one of them is to win, one of their first tasks will be to deal with still-simmering caucus divisions.
NDP MLAs tend not to spend much time in Langley, which has not been represented by an NDP MLA since 1963.
However, Dix was here in the run-up to the last provincial election and his knowledge of the health file is impressive. He has been the NDP health critic for several years.
Health expenditures take up about half of all money spent by the province, and the big challenge that future governments face is how to pay for it. Health costs will unquestionably go up as Baby Boomers age and treatment becomes more specialized.
The baggage he carries is that he was chief of staff to former premier Glen Clark, whose time in office is still used by Liberal MLAs to sell voters on the virtues of their party. This is somewhat ironic, given that Clark has gone on to a successful business career as an executive with the Jim Pattison Group, B.C.’s top private company.
Farnworth is a very popular MLA in his Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain riding, and was a competent cabinet minister under Clark. He has good appeal to the middle of the road voter — crucial if the NDP is to chip away at Liberal support in a future election. He has been tougher on law and order issues than most NDP MLAs, which has given him lots of profile and won’t hurt him any in a general election.
Both Dix and Farnworth have the advantage of being Lower Mainland MLAs. In a one-member, one-vote system, they have the chance to get broad support in the area where most B.C. residents live.
Horgan is also a competent MLA with considerable experience in government, both as a civil servant and political aide. His handicap as a Vancouver Island MLA is that he is not as well-known in the Lower Mainland. However, the NDP does have a lot of Vancouver Island members and that will undoubtedly help him.
Of the other three candidates, MLAs Nicholas Simons and Harry Lali were among the gang of 13 that brought down James. This may help or hurt them. The sixth candidate, pot activist Dana Larsen, has to be seen as a very long shot.